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First Growths: back to 2011

Last month, the Liv-ex 1000 index reached a record high for the seventh consecutive month. The index previously reached a high in July 2011 at the peak of the China-led bull market before falling to a low in August 2014.

Other Liv-ex indices have not been making the same records. The Liv-ex 100 has been rising, but is yet to surpass its previous highs; the Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 – which tracks the daily price movements of the First Growths – remains 22.8% below its peak in 2011.

Still, several First Growths are now close to or above their 2011 Trade Prices. The chart below shows those that are within £500 of their highest prices during the bull market.

Mouton Rothschild and Haut Brion are both well represented, and a handful of Latour and Margaux vintages have climbed back to levels seen six years ago. As yet, no Lafite Rothschild vintages feature.

Six of the wines shown above are currently commanding higher prices than during the bull market (2010-12). Mouton Rothschild 2003, for example, currently has a Trade Price of £4,500 per 12×75, marginally higher than levels reached in 2011.

Others are inches away from breaking through their previous highs. Mouton Rothschild 2002, for example, is just 0.6% off its peak Market Price.

As the fine wine market continues its momentum, it remains to be seen if trade prices will continue to rise.

Bull market prices are the highest price that the wine has traded at between the 1st January 2010 and 1st January 2013. The 2011 wines were released towards the end of this period, after the market peaked.

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